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Okay, so after asking the Twitterverse, I think my theory is slightly off, but I’m running with it anyway…
I stumbled upon the below twitter chart via Ogilvy’s twitter presentation. I was surprised to see that 56% of tweets came from the web interface. If you add twhirl, TwitterFox and IM, that’s a whooping 74% of tweets that come via a web interface. Personally, I send 99% of my tweets through SMS. I also frequently use twittermail, twitterberry and twhirl (but mainly because I manage 4 accounts and have to separate them somehow).
I think this chart is really telling. Everyone talks about the “year of mobile” and how the iPhone has drastically changed how people consume media. But, even if you add SMS updates (5%) and twitterific updates (7%) that’s only 12%. Clearly, people aren’t consuming as much media on their phone as we’d all like to think. And, these people are the so-called early adopters and thought leaders. If early adopters aren’t consuming massive amounts of media on their phones, how can we assume the mainstream is?
Do I think the new wave of iPhone-esque phones will drastically change how people do things? Yes. Do I think we’re still a long way off from what many of us are envisioning? Yes. Do I think it’s still important to play the game? Yes. Do I think this is going to be the year of mobile? No.
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