Mark my words, Michael Phelps will not compete in the 2012 Olympics. With his fiasco this week, I’ve been thinking a lot about this. I’m still struggling with the decision but, from one swimmer to another here’s why:
- He’s out of college. Swimming after college is hard. Period. During college, you have a daily schedule, you have friends who do the same thing and you don’t have much else to do. Even though you don’t have much to do, you’re kept busy with classes, study hours and swim practice. Enough to fill a day and keep anyone out of trouble or from getting bored.
- What has Phelps done since finishing the Olympics? Partied. He’s in Vegas constantly. When he’s not in Vegas, he’s partying somewhere else. Classic burnout modus operandi. Will he stop? Probably. Most swimmers go through the same cycles and always end up back in the water.
- He’s unmotivated. Just look at all the social media accounts he set up and has now abandoned. Did you also notice he started using them this week after being caught? He’s already won eight gold medals. What’s his goal in 2012? Win nine? Winning eight again would just be boring. In fact, when asked, he says his greatest swimming moment is a swim from Athens NOT the recent Olympics.
- He’s bored. Phelps is a classic case of ADD. He already won eight gold medals. He’s already number one. Unless some superstar appears out of the blue, he’s already beat all the opponents he’s dreamed of beating. He’s moving on to bigger and better things. In a young adult’s life, four years is a hell of a long time. Think about it. How long have you held a job before getting “the itch”? One year? Maybe two?
- It won’t be worth the effort. The Olympic committee and USA Swimming Organization are unforgiving. They’ll remember this one bong hit and put him through so many drug tests and other hoops it just won’t be worth it. Also, the news will bring this incident up repeatedly. I’m sure he’d rather brush it under a rug and forget about it. These three entities won’t let him.
Why do I think he might participate? Six months before the Olympics he’ll get motivated. He’ll hop back in the water, practice hard and once again dominate. But, if he starts practicing or honestly considering 2012 before then, I’ll be shocked.
I think Phelps will be in the water. Former athletes are not as profitable as current ones. He doesn’t need to win in London 2012–just make his appearance.
On the lighter side, in the photograph, I think Phelps was just glass-blowing the 2012 Olympic torch. It’s going to be a bong shaped beauty.
If Dara can swim at 150 years old, Phelps can.
@Adam Dara had a little more motivation and less ADD than Phelp does. My point wasn’t about age in terms of physical ability, it was in terms of emotional abilities. As a 20-something, Phelps is going through his quarter life crisis.